In the upcoming 2024 Republican presidential race in Iowa, Donald Trump has established a significant lead over his competitors, notably holding a more than 2-to-1 advantage over his closest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
According to a recent Iowa Poll conducted by Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom, Trump commands the support of 42% of likely Republican caucusgoers, placing him 23 percentage points ahead of DeSantis, who holds 19%. Following behind is U.S. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina with 9% support.
Meanwhile, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence are tied at 6%, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie holds 5%, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy trails with 4%.
While the poll underscores Trump's strong position, the race is far from decided, and J. Ann Selzer, president of the polling firm Selzer & Co., highlights that it could be more competitive than initial impressions suggest.
Among likely GOP caucusgoers, 63% express their intention to either support Trump as their first or second choice or are actively considering him. This is comparable to the 61% who hold similar sentiments for DeSantis. However, there remains room for shifts in preferences as the Caucus Day on January 15 approaches.
A noteworthy 52% of potential GOP caucusgoers have identified a primary candidate preference but are open to being swayed towards another contender. Conversely, 40% have made up their minds, while 7% lack a clear first-choice candidate.
Furthermore, only a small fraction (7%) of respondents indicate they are solely considering one candidate. A larger percentage (17%) are contemplating two options, 19% are contemplating three, and a significant 55% are evaluating four or more potential candidates.
The survey involved 406 likely Republican caucusgoers and took place from August 13 to 17. It possesses a margin of error of approximately 4.9 percentage points. This poll marks the first assessment of the 14 Republican candidates competing for the opportunity to challenge Democratic President Joe Biden in the 2024 election.
Beyond the prominent contenders, an additional seven candidates are registering at 2% or lower in the polls. This group encompasses North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum with 2%, and former U.S. Representative Will Hurd with 1%. Businessman Ryan Binkley, conservative radio host Larry Elder, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, businessman Perry Johnson, and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez all fall below the 1% mark.
When considering their preferred candidate, 65% of respondents emphasize aligning with a candidate who closely mirrors their stances on issues. Meanwhile, 29% prioritize selecting a candidate with the strongest potential to defeat incumbent President Joe Biden.
